Forecasting is carried out for both monthly rainfall and the average temperature of all the countries using best fitted models based on the data series. Box-Jenkins methodology was also used to develop the model and estimate the forecasting behaviour of rainfall and temperature in South Asian countries. For estimating the trending behaviour, a non-parametric model such as the Mann-Kendall test was used with Sen's slope estimation to determine the magnitude of the trend. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka data from January, 1961 to December, 2016 have been collected from World Bank Group, Climate change knowledge portal. ![]() The monthly average rainfall and temperature of South Asian countries except Afghanistan and Maldives viz. The study has also been attempted to compare the above methods with the help of actual data. ![]() Mann-Kendall trend test with Sen's Slope Estimator, to find the trending behaviour of all data series. ![]() This study attempted to examine the future behaviour of monthly average rainfall and temperature of South Asian countries by using the Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average model.
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